Opioid use in cancer patients compared with noncancer pain patients in a veteran population.

BACKGROUND: Opioid safety initiatives may secondarily impact opioid prescribing and pain outcomes for cancer care. METHODS: We reviewed electronic health record data at a tertiary Veterans Affairs system (VA Palo Alto) for all patients from 2015 to 2021. We collected outpatient Schedule II opioid prescriptions data and calculated morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conversion formulas. To determine the clinical impact of changes in opioid prescription, we used the highest level of pain reported by each patient on the 0-to-10 Numeric Rating Scale in each year, categorized into mild (0-3), moderate (4-6), and severe (7 and above). RESULTS: Among 89 569 patients, 9073 had a cancer diagnosis. Cancer patients were almost twice as likely to have an opioid prescription compared with noncancer patients (69.0% vs 36.7%, respectively). The proportion of patients who received an opioid prescription decreased from 27.1% to 18.1% (trend P < .01) in cancer patients and from 17.0% to 10.2% in noncancer patients (trend P < .01). Cancer and noncancer patients had similar declines of MMEs per year between 2015 and 2019, but the decline was more rapid for cancer patients (1462.5 to 946.4, 35.3%) compared with noncancer patients (1315.6 to 927.7, 29.5%) from 2019 to 2021. During the study period, the proportion of noncancer patients who experienced severe pain was almost unchanged, whereas it increased among cancer patients, reaching a significantly higher rate than among noncancer patients in 2021 (31.9% vs 27.4%, P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest potential unintended consequences for cancer care because of efforts to manage opioid-related risks.

Effectiveness of polypill for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial (PolyPars).

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of fixed-dose combination therapy (polypill) for primary and secondary prevention of major cardiovascular diseases in a typical rural setting. METHODS: The PolyPars Study is a two-arm pragmatic cluster-randomised trial nested within the PARS cohort study, including all residents aged over 50 years in the entire district in southern Iran. The 91 villages underwent random allocation into two arms: the control arm, encompassing 45 clusters, was subjected to non-pharmacological intervention (educational training on healthy lifestyle), whereas the intervention arm, comprising 46 clusters, received the non-pharmacological interventions in conjunction with a once-daily polypill tablet. This tablet comprised two antihypertensive agents, a statin and aspirin. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of major cardiovascular events defined as a composite of hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome (non-fatal myocardial infarction and unstable angina), fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal and fatal stroke, sudden death and heart failure. The Cox regression model, with shared frailty, was used to account for clustering effect. RESULTS: During December 2015-December 2016, a total of 4415 participants aged 50-75 years were recruited (2200 participants in the intervention arm and 2215 participants in the control arm). The overall median of follow-up duration was 4.6 years (interquartile interval 4.4-4.9). The achieved adherence rate to polypill in intervention arm was 86%. In the control group, 176 (8.0%) of 2215 participants developed primary outcome, compared with 88 (4.0%) of 2200 participants in the polypill group. We found substantial reduction in risk of primary outcome both in relative and absolute scales (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.65; absolute risk reduction 4.0%, 95% CI 2.5% to 5.3%). No difference in serious adverse events was observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The fixed-dose combination therapy using polypill can safely halve the risk of major cardiovascular diseases at the population level. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03459560.

Mineral Intake and Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, and All-Cause Mortality: Findings from the Golestan Cohort Study.

Associations between mineral intake and mortality in non-Western countries have not been studied adequately. This study evaluated these associations in the Golestan Cohort Study, featuring a Middle Eastern population. The mineral intake was estimated from the baseline food frequency questionnaire, adjusted by using the nutrient density method, and divided into quintiles. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the mortality. We analyzed 41,863 subjects with a mean age of 51.46 ± 8.73 years at the baseline. During 578,694 person-years of follow-up (median: 14.1 Years), 7217 deaths were recorded. Dietary calcium intake was inversely associated with the all-cause mortality (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.91, 95%CI = 0.85-0.99). We observed significant associations between calcium (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.73-0.93), copper (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.99-1.26), and selenium intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.29) and CVD mortality. Dietary phosphorus (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.69-0.96) and copper intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.71-0.99) were inversely associated with cancer mortality. In this study within a Middle Eastern population, a higher dietary intake of calcium exhibited an inverse association with all-cause mortality. Furthermore, nuanced associations were observed in the cause-specific mortality, suggesting potential avenues for dietary interventions and emphasizing the importance of considering dietary factors in public health strategies.

Breast cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis by ethnic region, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the effects of age, diagnosis year (calendar period) and birth year (cohort) on the incidence trends of breast cancer among Golestan women, Northeast Iran, 2004-2018. METHODS: Incidence data were obtained by residential status (urban/rural) and ethnic region (Turkmens/non-Turkmens). We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated, and age-period-cohort (APC) models fitted to assess non-linear effects of period and cohort as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: The total number of female breast cancer cases in Golestan, 2004-2018, were 3853, with an overall ASR of 31.3. We found higher rates in urban population (40.5) and non-Turkmens region (38.5) compared to rural area (20.8) and Turkmens region (20.2), respectively. There were increasing trends in incidence rates overall (EAPC= 4.4; 95%CI: 2.2, 6.7), with greater changes in rural areas (EAPC=5.1), particularly among non-Turkmens (EAPC=5.8). The results of the APC analysis indicate the presence of significant non-linear cohort effects with increasing IRRs across successive birth cohorts (IRR=0.1 and IRR= 2.6 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively). CONCLUSION: We found increasing trends in breast cancer incidence among Golestan women over the study period, with disparities in patterns and trends by residence area and ethnic region. The observed cohort effects suggest an increasing prevalence of key risk factors for breast cancer in this Iranian population. Further investigations are warranted to clarify the relationships between determinants such as reproductive factors and ethnicity in the region.

Unveiling an Association between Waterpipe Smoking and Bladder Cancer Risk: A Multicenter Case-Control Study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist for the association between bladder cancers and waterpipe smoking, an emerging global public health concern. METHODS: We used the IROPICAN database in Iran and used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for cigarette smoking, opium use, and other confounding factors. In addition, we studied the association between exclusive waterpipe smoking and bladder cancer. RESULTS: We analyzed 717 cases and 3,477 controls and a subset of 215 patients and 2,145 controls who did not use opium or cigarettes. Although the OR adjusted for opium, cigarettes, and other tobacco products was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-1.20], we observed a statistically significant elevated risk in exclusive waterpipe smokers (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16-2.72) compared with non-users of opium or any tobacco. Associations were strongest for smoking more than two heads/day (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.21-4.18) and for initiating waterpipe smoking at an age less than 20 (OR = 2.73; 95% CI, 1.11-6.72). The OR for urothelial bladder cancer was higher in ex-smokers (OR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.24-4.42) than in current smokers (OR = 1.52; 95% CI, 0.72-3.15). All observed associations were consistently higher for urothelial histology. CONCLUSIONS: Waterpipe smoking may be associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer, notably among individuals who are not exposed to cigarette smoking and opium. IMPACT: The study provides compelling evidence that waterpipe smoking is a confirmed human carcinogen, demanding action from policymakers. See related In the Spotlight, p. 461.

Dental health and lung cancer risk in the Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Poor oral health has been linked to various systemic diseases, including multiple cancer types, but studies of its association with lung cancer have been inconclusive. METHODS: We examined the relationship between dental status and lung cancer incidence and mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study, a large, prospective cohort of 50,045 adults in northeastern Iran. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between three dental health measures (i.e., number of missing teeth; the sum of decayed, missing, or filled teeth (DMFT); and toothbrushing frequency) and lung cancer incidence or mortality with adjustment for multiple potential confounders, including cigarette smoking and opium use. We created tertiles of the number of lost teeth/DMFT score in excess of the loess adjusted, age- and sex-specific predicted numbers, with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth/DMFT or fewer as the reference group. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14 years, there were 119 incident lung cancer cases and 98 lung cancer deaths. Higher DMFT scores were associated with a progressively increased risk of lung cancer (linear trend, p = 0.011). Compared with individuals with the expected DMFT score or less, the HRs were 1.27 (95% CI: 0.73, 2.22), 2.15 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.43), and 1.52 (95% CI: 0.81, 2.84) for the first to the third tertiles of DMFT, respectively. The highest tertile of tooth loss also had an increased risk of lung cancer, with a HR of 1.68 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.70) compared with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth or fewer (linear trend, p = 0.043). The results were similar for lung cancer mortality and did not change substantially when the analysis was restricted to never users of cigarettes or opium. We found no associations between toothbrushing frequency and lung cancer incidence or mortality. CONCLUSION: Poor dental health indicated by tooth loss or DMFT, but not lack of toothbrushing, was associated with increased lung cancer incidence and mortality in this rural Middle Eastern population.

Prevalence and determinants of opioid use disorder among long-term opiate users in Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Number of opiate users worldwide has doubled over the past decade, but not all of them are diagnosed with opioid use disorder. We aimed to identify the prevalence and risk factors for OUD after ten years of follow-up. METHODS: Among 8,500 chronic opiate users at Golestan Cohort Study baseline (2004-2008), we recalled a random sample of 451 subjects in 2017. We used three questionnaires: a questionnaire about current opiate use including type and route of use, the drug use disorder section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview lifetime version, and the validated Kessler10 questionnaire. We defined opioid use disorder and its severity based on the DSM-5 criteria and used a cutoff of 12 on Kessler10 questionnaire to define psychological distress. RESULTS: Mean age was 61.2 ± 6.6 years (84.7% males) and 58% were diagnosed with opioid use disorder. Starting opiate use at an early age and living in underprivileged conditions were risk factors of opioid use disorder. Individuals with opioid use disorder were twice likely to have psychological distress (OR = 2.25; 95%CI: 1.44-3.52) than the users without it. In multivariate regression, former and current opiate dose and oral use of opiates were independently associated with opioid use disorder. Each ten gram per week increase in opiate dose during the study period almost tripled the odds of opioid use disorder (OR = 3.18; 95%CI: 1.79-5.63). CONCLUSIONS: Chronic opiate use led to clinical opioid use disorder in more than half of the users, and this disorder was associated with psychological distress, increasing its physical and mental burden in high-risk groups.

Opium use and risk of colorectal cancer: a multi-center case-referent study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Opium use has been associated with an increased risk of cancers of the lung, oesophagus, and pancreas, and it was recently classified by the International Agency for Cancer Research as carcinogenic to humans. It is not clear whether opium also increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of our study was to assess the association between various metrics of opium use and the risk of CRC. METHODS: This case-referent study from seven provinces in Iran comprised 848 CRC cases and 3215 referents. Data on opium use (duration, amount, frequency) and potential confounders were collected by trained interviewers. Multivariable unconditional logistic regression models were used to measure odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age, gender, province, marital status, family history of CRC-linked cancers, consumption of red meat, fruits and vegetables, body shape, occupational physical activity, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Regular opium consumption was not associated with the risk of CRC (OR 0.9, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.7, 1.2) compared to subjects who never used opium. However, frequent opium use more than twice a day was associated with an increased risk of CRC compared to non-users of opium (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.8; p for quadratic trend 0.008). CONCLUSION: There seems to be no overall association between opium use and CRC, but the risk of CRC might be increased among persons who use opium many times a day.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Although lung cancer prediction models are widely used to support risk-based screening, their performance outside Western populations remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 11 existing risk prediction models in multiple Asian populations and to refit prediction models for Asians. METHODS: In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts. RESULTS: Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters. CONCLUSIONS: The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.

Smoke exposure associated with higher urinary benzene biomarker muconic acid (MUCA) in Golestan Cohort Study participants.

Background. Benzene is a known human carcinogen. Human exposure to benzene can be assessed by measuring trans, trans-muconic acid (MUCA) in urine. Golestan Province in northeastern Iran has been reported to have high incidence of esophageal cancer linked to the use of tobacco products. This manuscript evaluates the urinary MUCA concentrations among the participants of the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS).Methods. We analyzed MUCA concentration in 177 GCS participants' urine samples and performed nonparametric pairwise multiple comparisons to determine statistically significant difference among six different product use groups. Mixed effects model was fitted on 22 participants who exclusively smoked cigarette and 51 participants who were classified as nonusers. The urinary MUCA data were collected at the baseline and approximately five years later, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated from the model.Results. Compared with nonusers, tobacco smoking was associated with higher urinary MUCA concentrations. Based on the nonparametric test of pairwise multiple comparisons, MUCA concentrations among participants who smoked combusted tobacco products were statistically significantly higher compared to nonusers. Urinary MUCA collected five years apart from the same individuals showed moderate reliability (ICC = 0.41), which was expected given the relatively short half-life (∼6 h) of MUCA.Conclusion. Our study revealed that tobacco smoke was positively associated with increased levels of urinary MUCA concentration, indicating that it is a significant source of benzene exposure among GCS participants.

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines and incidence of esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Studying carcinogens in tobacco and non-tobacco sources may be key to understanding the pathogenesis and geographic distribution of esophageal cancer. METHODS: Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) has been conducted since 2004 in a region with high rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). For this nested study, the cases comprised of all incident cases by Jan 1, 2018; controls were matched to the case by age, sex, residence, time in cohort, and tobacco use. We measured urinary concentrations of 33 exposure biomarkers of nicotine, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs). We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for associations between the 90th versus the 10th percentiles of the biomarker concentrations and incident ESCC. RESULTS: Among individuals who did not currently use tobacco (148 cases/163 controls), two acrolein metabolites, two acrylonitrile metabolites, one propylene oxide metabolite and one 1,3-butadiene metabolite were significantly associated with incident ESCC (adjusted ORs between 1.8 and 4.3). Among tobacco users (57 cases/63 controls), metabolites of two other VOCs (styrene and xylene) were associated with ESCC (ORs= 6.2 and 9.0). In tobacco users, two TSNAs (NNN and N'-Nitrosoanatabine) were also associated with ESCC. Suggestive associations were seen with some PAHs (especially 2-hydroxynaphthalene) in non-users of tobacco products and other TSNAs in tobacco users. CONCLUSION: These novel associations based on individual-level data and samples collected many years before cancer diagnosis, from a population without occupational exposure, have important public health implications.

Association Between Incident Type 2 Diabetes and Opium Use: Mediation by Body Mass and Adiposity.

Opiates can affect glucose metabolism and obesity, but no large prospective study (to our knowledge) has investigated the association between long-term opium use, body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2), and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We analyzed prospective data from 50,045 Golestan Cohort Study participants in Iran (enrollment: 2004-2008). After excluding participants with preexisting diseases, including diabetes, we used adjusted Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for T2DM in opium users compared with nonusers, using mediation analysis to assess the BMI-mediated association of opium use with incident T2DM. Of 40,083 included participants (mean age = 51.4 (standard deviation, 8.8) years; 56% female), 16% were opium users (median duration of use, 10 (interquartile range), 4-20) years). During follow-up (until January 2020), 5,342 incident T2DM cases were recorded, including 8.5% of opium users and 14.2% of nonusers. Opium use was associated with an overall decrease in incident T2DM (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.92), with a significant dose-response association. Most (84.3%) of this association was mediated by low BMI or waist circumference, and opium use did not have a direct association with incident T2DM (IRR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.08). Long-term opium use was associated with lower incidence of T2DM, which was mediated by low body mass and adiposity.

Colorectal cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the effects of factors including age, birth year (cohort) and diagnosis year (period) on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence trends in Golestan, Northeast of Iran, 2004-2018. METHODS: We obtained data on incidence cases of CRC from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry by sex and area of residence (urban/rural). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the World standard population and presented per 100,000 person-years. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess non-linear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: Overall, 2839 new cases of CRC (ASR = 13.7) were registered in the GPCR over 2004-2018. Our findings suggested significantly increasing trends in CRC incidence rates from 2004 to 2018 (EAPC = 3.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 7.1), with the greatest changes occurring in rural women (EAPC= 4.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 9.2). We observed a strong cohort effect with a consistent increase in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924) (IRR= 0.1 versus the reference birth cohort of 1955) through to the most recent cohort born in 1983 (IRR= 1.9). The largest cohort effects were found among rural females (IRR = 0.0, and IRR = 2.5 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively). CONCLUSION: The increasing trends in CRC rates in Golestan are largely driven by generational changes in exposure to underlying risk factors. Further investigations are warranted to deliver effective prevention strategies for the control of CRC in Golestan.

Regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran: Insight from a National Surveillance of Cancer Survival in Iran (IRANCANSURV).

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate geographical disparity in cancer survival in 9 provincial population-based cancer registries in Iran from 2015 to 2016. MATERIAL AND METHOD: In the current study, data from 90,862 adult patients (aged >15 years) diagnosed with cancer were retrieved from 9 population-based cancer registries across Iran. Five-year survival rates were estimated by applying relative survival approaches. We also applied the international cancer survival standard weights for age standardization. Finally, we calculated the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each province adjusted for age, sex, and cancer sites to estimate the excess hazard ratio of mortality compared to the capital province (Tehran). RESULTS: The largest gap in survival was observed in more curable cancer types, including melanoma (41.4%), ovary (32.3%), cervix (35.0%), prostate (26.7%), and rectum (21.4%), while the observed geographical disparity in lethal cancers such as lung, brain, stomach, and pancreas was less than 15%. Compared to Tehran, we found the highest excess hazard of death in Western Azerbaijan (EHR=1.60, 95% CI 1.51, 1.65), Kermanshah (EHR=1.52, 95% CI=1.44, 1.61), and Kerman (EHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.38, 1.53). The hazard ratio of death was almost identical in Isfahan (EHR=1.04, 95% CI=1.03, 1.06) and Tehran provinces. CONCLUSION: Provinces with higher HDI had better survival rates. IRANCANSURV study showed regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran. Cancer patients in provinces with a higher Human Development Index (HDI) had a higher survival rate and lived longer compared to the patients in provinces with medium and low HDI regions.

Dietary Advanced Glycation End Products and Risk of Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality: Results from the Golestan Cohort Study.

Controversy exists regarding the association of dietary advanced glycation end products (dAGEs) with the risk of disease outcomes and mortality. We aimed to examine, prospectively, the association between dAGEs intake and the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study. The cohort was conducted between 2004 and 2008 in Golestan Province (Iran) recruiting 50,045 participants aged 40-75 years. Assessment of dietary intake over the last year was performed at baseline using a 116-item food frequency questionnaire. The dAGEs values for each individual were calculated based on published databases of AGE values of various food items. The main outcome was overall mortality at the time of follow-up (13.5 years). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cause-specific mortality were estimated according to the dAGEs quintiles. During 656, 532 person-years of follow-up, 5406 deaths in men and 4722 deaths in women were reported. Participants at the highest quintile of dAGE had a lower risk of overall mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95), CVD mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95), and death from other causes (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95) compared to those in the first quintile after adjusting for confounders. We found no association of dAGEs with risk of mortality from cancer (all), respiratory and infectious diseases, and injuries. Our findings do not confirm a positive association between dAGEs and the risk of mortality in Iranian adults. There is still no agreement among studies investigating dAGEs and their health-related aspects. So, further high-quality studies are required to clarify this association.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018.

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

Biomarkers of Tobacco Carcinogenesis in Diverse Populations: Challenges and Opportunities.

Biomarkers can provide distinct information about cancer risk factors in populations from diverse ancestries and with different exposure patterns by measuring the internal dose of carcinogens. While similar environmental exposures can lead to different cancer risks across racial or ethnic groups, seemingly different exposures can cause the same cancers because they produce the same biomarkers in the body. Smoke-related biomarkers are among the most commonly studied biomarkers in relation to cancer, and they include tobacco-specific biomarkers (nicotine metabolites and tobacco-specific nitrosamines) and biomarkers which can result from exposure to tobacco and non-tobacco pollutants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and volatile organic compounds). Biomonitoring is superior to self-reported exposure assessment because it is less prone to information and recall biases. However, biomarkers generally reflect recent exposure determined by their metabolism and half-life and how they are stored in and excreted from the body. Many biomarkers are correlated because the sources of exposure usually contain several carcinogens at the same time, making it difficult to identify specific chemicals which lead to cancer. Despite these challenges, biomarkers will continue to be essential to cancer research. Prospective studies, with detailed exposure assessment and large sample sizes from diverse backgrounds, along with studies designed to enrich the methodology of biomarker research are the necessary steps in that direction. See related article by Cigan et al., p. 306.

The carcinogenicity of opium consumption: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The carcinogenicity of opium consumption was recently evaluated by a Working Group convened by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). We supplement the recent IARC evaluation by conducting an extended systematic review as well as a quantitative meta-analytic assessment of the role of opium consumption and risk for selected cancers, evaluating in detail various aspects of study quality on meta-analytic findings. We searched the published literature to identify all relevant studies on opium consumption and risk of selected cancers in humans through 31 October, 2022. Meta-relative risks (mRRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using random-effects models for studies of cancer of the urinary bladder, larynx, lung, oesophagus, pancreas, and stomach. Heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 statistic. We assessed study quality and conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of potential reverse causation, protopathic bias, selection bias, information bias, and confounding. In total, 2 prospective cohort studies and 33 case-control studies were included. The overall pooled mRR estimated for 'ever or regular' versus 'never' use of opium ranged from 1.50 (95% CI 1.13-1.99, I2 = 0%, 6 studies) for oesophageal cancer to 7.97 (95% CI 4.79-13.3, I2 = 62%, 7 studies) for laryngeal cancer. Analyses of cumulative opium exposure suggested greater risk of cancer associated with higher opium consumption. Findings were robust in sensitivity analyses excluding studies prone to potential methodological sources of biases and confounding. Findings support an adverse association between opium consumption and cancers of the urinary bladder, larynx, lung, oesophagus, pancreas and stomach.

Opium use and risk of lung cancer: A multicenter case-control study in Iran.

Opium use was recently classified as a human carcinogen for lung cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We conducted a large, multicenter case-control study evaluating the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. We recruited 627 cases and 3477 controls from May 2017 to July 2020. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and measured the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. The ORs were adjusted for the residential place, age, gender, socioeconomic status, cigarettes, and water pipe smoking. We found a 3.6-fold risk of lung cancer for regular opium users compared to never users (95% CI: 2.9, 4.6). There was a strong dose-response association between a cumulative count of opium use and lung cancer risk. The OR for regular opium use was higher for small cell carcinoma than in other histology (8.3, 95% CI: 4.8, 14.4). The OR of developing lung cancer among opium users was higher in females (7.4, 95% CI: 3.8, 14.5) than in males (3.3, 95% CI: 2.6, 4.2). The OR for users of both opium and tobacco was 13.4 (95% CI: 10.2, 17.7) compared to nonusers of anything. The risk of developing lung cancer is higher in regular opium users, and these results strengthen the conclusions on the carcinogenicity of opium. The association is stronger for small cell carcinoma cases than in other histology.

Sex and smoking differences in the association between gastroesophageal reflux and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-incidence area: Golestan Cohort Study.

Prior studies have conflicting findings regarding the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We examined this relationship in a prospective cohort in a region of high ESCC incidence. Baseline exposure data were collected from 50 045 individuals using in-person interviews at the time of cohort entry. Participants were followed until they developed cancer, died, or were lost to follow up. Participants with GERD symptoms were categorized into any GERD (heartburn or regurgitation), mixed symptoms, or heartburn alone. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the relationship between GERD symptom group and histologically confirmed ESCC. The model was adjusted for known risk factors for GERD and ESCC. 49 559 individuals were included in this study, of which 9005 had GERD symptoms. Over 13.0 years of median follow up, 290 individuals were diagnosed with ESCC. We found no association between any GERD and risk of ESCC (aHR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.66-1.24, P = .54). Similar findings were observed for the GERD symptom subtypes. Significant interactions between any GERD and sex (P = .013) as well as tobacco smoking (P = .028) were observed. In post-hoc analyses, GERD was associated with a decreased risk of ESCC in men (aHR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27-0.98 P = .04) and in smokers (aHR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.83 P = .02). While there was little evidence for an overall association between GERD symptoms and ESCC risk, significant interactions with sex and smoking were observed. Men and smokers with GERD symptoms had a lower risk of ESCC development.